Cabbagetown

Canada doesn't have enough student housing.

New student housing near universities is sitting vacant.

Both are true. And the answer is the same word — affordability.

CMHC's mid-year data confirmed vacancy is concentrated in post-2020 builds and student-adjacent units. Not older stock. New stock.

Here's the investor math. You can't build affordable housing at today's construction costs. New builds require rents most tenants can't pay. But older buildings acquired below replacement cost? The math works at a lower rent. That's why they stay full.

The gap between what it costs to build and what tenants can actually pay is the defining tension in Ontario multifamily right now.

New supply isn't solving the problem. Affordability is the problem.

Home prices are stabilizing nationally — but condos are still falling.

RBC's latest report shows national prices down 4.1% year over year, with condos down 6.5%. Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto, and Niagara Region are named as some of the weakest Ontario markets specifically.

This connects directly to what we've been tracking in CMHC's data — investor-owned condo units that couldn't sell are flooding the rental market, competing with purpose-built rental product. Now we're seeing the same softness show up in condo values.

If you're underwriting anything condo-exposed in KWC or Niagara, build continued price softness into your model.

I'm actively buying apartment buildings in Southwestern Ontario. 8+ units.

Value-add. Deferred maintenance. Financing difficulties. If the property has a story, I want to hear it.

We're not looking on MLS. If you're a seller, or an agent with access to something off-market — let's connect directly.

Book a call at cal.westcliffam.com.

Population growth is slowing. Unemployment is elevated. And CMHC still expects rental demand to grow. Here's why that's not a contradiction.

Household formation is the actual driver — not population growth. And three forces are keeping it alive: improving affordability unlocking suppressed households, return-to-office driving location-specific demand, and large young-adult cohorts choosing to rent over buy amid economic uncertainty.

Toronto is specifically flagged. Easing housing costs are expected to surface previously suppressed demand — people who were doubled up or living at home longer than planned.

The headline numbers look soft. The structural demand floor is still intact. Those are two different things, andconfusing them leads to bad underwriting decisions.

Full breakdown on Smart Real Estate — link in bio.

The rental market isn't soft everywhere. It's soft in specific product types.

CMHC's mid-year update confirms vacancies are concentrated in post-2020 builds and student-adjacent units. Older stabilized stock and family-sized units remain tight. That gap is widening.

If you're underwriting acquisitions right now, the vintage of the asset matters more than the headline vacancy number. New product is offering months of free rent to fill units. Stabilized older stock isn't.

Know what you're buying. The market isn't one number — it's a spectrum.

Full breakdown on Smart Real Estate — link in bio.

CIBC and RBC both covered today's Bank of Canada hold. They agree on 2026. They diverge on 2027 — and that gap is what investors need to pay attention to.

Both economists confirm: 2.25% holds through the rest of this year. Core inflation at 2%. Economy in excess supply. Bank is patient. No urgency in either direction.

But RBC's Claire Fan is calling moderate hikes in 2027, based on improving economic conditions — not oil-driven inflation. CIBC's Andrew Grantham sees recovery ahead but doesn't make the same 2027 hike call.

Bond yields fell after today's announcement. Markets expected a more hawkish tone and didn't get it — directionally positive for fixed mortgage rates near term.

The planning window is 2026. The question you should be asking is what your debt structure looks like if RBC's 2027 call proves correct.

Full breakdown on Smart Real Estate — www.learninvestmanage.com

Canada's rental market just hit 20 consecutive months of annual rent declines — and this time, the report flags something new: Canada's first recorded population decline as an active headwind on rental demand.

Ontario apartment rents are down 5.0% year over year. Toronto has now declined for 28 straight months. Richmond Hill -14.3%. Markham -12.9%. Scarborough -10.6%.

Record apartment completions. Elevated youth unemployment. A shrinking population. Three structural forces hitting landlords at the same time — this isn't a seasonal dip, it's a reset.

Purpose-built is outperforming condos, but the whole market is under pressure. If you're underwriting acquisitions right now, your rent growth assumptions need to reflect this reality.

Full breakdown on Smart Real Estate — link in bio.

Ontario just took an equity position in a stalled Scarborough housing development.

The Building Ontario Fund — a provincial infrastructure investment vehicle — is committing up to $178 million into Scarborough Junction alongside Republic Developments and Harlo Capital. The project had stalled. BOF's equity investment is what unlocks it.

The numbers: 1,700 rental units total. 340 affordable units secured at below-market rents for 40 years. Transit-connected to Scarborough GO. Construction starts 2027, occupancy by 2030.

What's worth paying attention to here isn't the unit count — it's the financing mechanism. This isn't a grant. BOF takes an equity stake, gets repaid, then recycles the capital into the next stalled project. The province is functioning as a gap-equity co-investor.

If that model scales, it has real implications for how stalled GTA projects get unstuck over the next 3-5 years.

Ontario and Canada just launched an $8.8 billion Development Charge Reduction Program. Municipalities that cut DCs by 30–50% get funded for housing infrastructure. Applications close June 19th.

So what does a 50% DC cut actually buy? CMHC already ran the numbers.

In Toronto: +5% viable projects → 4,900 to 7,650 additional units annually. Full DC elimination → up to 16,250 units per year — roughly a third to half of Toronto's estimated supply gap to restore 2019 affordability.

In Ottawa — where DCs are already lower — the same 50% cut produces only 1.3% more viable projects. The policy works hardest where the barrier is highest.

The DCRP is the right lever. CMHC's own research confirms it moves the needle in Toronto. It also confirms it doesn't solve the crisis alone — and that impact varies dramatically by market.

Understand what the policy actually buys before you price it into your underwriting.