Trusted Mortgage Advisors: Robert Bajakian, Mortgage Broker NMLS #77324

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
Rates were volatile last week, moving higher on Wednesday after the Fed signaled policy rate hikes are likely this year, before falling back to end the week essentially unchanged. Markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
For the first time in months, the conflict with Iran is no longer the biggest influence on mortgage rates. Markets are now focused on inflation concerns and the likelihood of Fed rate hikes. That could put upward pressure on mortgage rates, keeping them near current levels or pushing them higher.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
• The Fed: Last week's meeting included forecasts from many Fed officials that policy rates may need to move higher this year, with some members expecting more than one hike. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised markets by emphasizing the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target rather than focusing on rate cuts. Mortgage rates are already pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike.
• Economic data: Thursday brings the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE report, and Friday brings consumer sentiment data. Both could play a role in mortgage rates this week.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Rates started last week a little higher but ended lower after reports surfaced that a peace deal with Iran was close and could possibly be signed over the weekend. Even though both consumer and wholesale inflation continued to rise, markets largely expected those increases, so mortgage rates showed little reaction.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
With a peace agreement now in place and the Strait of Hormuz expected to fully reopen, oil prices have fallen and mortgage rates could continue to improve. The biggest test this week comes Wednesday when new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his first Fed meeting and press conference.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
• The Middle East: The peace agreement is expected to be formally signed Friday, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz should help bring oil prices lower. That would ease inflation concerns and help mortgage rates improve over coming weeks.
• The Fed: Wednesday's Fed meeting could create some volatility in mortgage rates, especially during and after Chair Warsh's press conference as markets assess the Fed's outlook for future rate policy.
• Juneteenth: Markets and many mortgage companies will be closed on Friday.

This is normal, right?

You find the perfect house online.
You schedule a showing.
You fall in love.

Then you start looking for a mortgage.

The problem?

❌ You might find out the house costs more than you can afford.

❌ You could miss out on loan programs or down payment assistance that could save you thousands.

❌ You may not know what monthly payment actually fits your budget.

❌ And while you're figuring all that out, another buyer who's already pre-approved may submit an offer first.

Getting pre-approved before you start house hunting doesn't mean you're committing to buy a home.

It simply helps you with:
✔️ How much home can you afford
✔️ Have more people take you seriously
✔️ How much money can you save

The best first step in buying a home isn't finding a house.

It's finding out what you can buy before you start shopping.
Reach out to me or send me a message if you want to start looking around or have any questions.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Rates moved higher last week, with the biggest moves coming on Friday in reaction to much stronger than expected jobs data. The jobs report smashed expectations, with more than twice as many new jobs created as forecast. The strong labor market makes it even more likely that the Fed will raise its policy rate this year to fight inflation.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
After last week's early headlines that Iran could be pulling out of peace talks proved to be inaccurate, there was still no meaningful progress toward a deal. Rates will continue to move alongside oil prices, as well as be affected this week by both consumer and wholesale inflation reports and continued headlines coming out of the Middle East.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
• The Middle East: Despite talks dragging on, mortgage rates are still likely to move along with headlines about any progress toward a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping traffic.
• Economic data: Inflation is bad for rates, pushing them higher, and we could see rates react to both consumer and wholesale inflation data this week if they show inflation continues to increase.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Rates fell for a second straight week, although the improvement was modest as peace talks with Iran continued to drag on without a final resolution. All other factors continued to take a back seat, with mortgage rates reacting almost solely to events in the Middle East.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
Rates will continue reacting to headlines about a potential peace deal with Iran, and that news was already volatile this morning. Unconfirmed reports that Iran may walk away from negotiations and fully block the Strait of Hormuz pushed mortgage rates higher to start the week. With markets closely tracking developments in the Middle East, rates will likely remain difficult to predict this week.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
• The Middle East: Mortgage rates will continue to react to headlines about peace deal negotiations. When oil prices fall, rates tend to improve. When oil prices rise, rates tend to move higher. Expect some day-to-day volatility, and even changes during the day, as markets respond to new developments.
• Economic data: Although this is a big week for labor market data, it is unlikely the data will have as much impact on mortgage rates as usual.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Rates pushed to the highest levels this year on Tuesday, but then moved lower after news broke that negotiations with Iran were progressing.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
Rates will continue to track oil prices and follow headlines about a deal with Iran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Minor military skirmishes aren’t likely to hurt rates as long as they don’t derail negotiations, but if the ceasefire were to end, we would see rates jump.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
• The Middle East: Peace talks continue with Iran, albeit slowly, as both sides push for concessions and compromises. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic, and we are not likely to see mortgage rates move significantly lower from here until it reopens, though we could see modest improvement from recent highs.
• The Fed: Markets expect the Fed will be unable to cut rates this year and may even have to hike, as inflation continues to worry investors and traders.
• Economic data: It's a holiday-shortened week, but Thursday brings a few reports, including some inflation data. However, they shouldn’t cause any big moves in rates.

New 5.0-star Review: "We had a wonderful experience working with Robert throughout the home buying process. He was always available to answer questions and took the time to explain every detail thoroughly. His guidance and advice gave us a lot of confidence while making important financial decisions. We especially appreciated his patience, responsiveness, and professionalism at every step. My family truly values his insights and we are very grateful for all the support he provided."